Assessing the Toronto off-season

The Raptors have transformed their team in a matter of weeks, with hardcore fans joyfully shuffling last year's 33-win stinker deep into the dark recesses of their memories.

We signed the biggest name UFA on the market. Drafted an athletic wing oozing with upside. Cleared up some cap space for a bench. Signed a rough back up big who hoovers boards with an attitude. Made an offer to a combo guard who can penetrate to play some back up at the 1 while spending time at the 2 in a small-lineup pinch, insurance should Roko Ukic not develop as planned.

In the big picture however, what are our expectations, and in reality, what has changed?

First off, the playoffs. Will the Raptors be a top 8 team in the East next year? Probably.

Are we a second round team? Probably not.

The question is whether fans are willing to accept this.

Let's look at it this way.

Teams that absolutely will beat us in a series: Cleveland, Orlando, Boston

Teams that are roughly on par with us: Washington, Chicago, Atlanta, Detroit

Teams that will suck next year: Charlotte, Indiana, Miami, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, New Jersey, New York

Basically, we will finish no worse than 8th, and no better than 4th. This I am willing to wager on. What that also means however, is that unless we finish 4th or 5th, we are destined to be bounced in the first round. The 6-7-8 seeds are a one-way ticket to the golf course for our team of soft-serve-shooters.

Will we be content with that result? From the perspective of a one-season improvement, perhaps. Personally however, I find this rather disconcerting, since all our players essentially are in the prime right now, meaning... unless DeMar DeRozan becomes a superstar, or MLSE is willing to trade for a superstar and go over the tax...

This is the best this team is ever going to get. Perhaps with one season playing together and experience they might climb a few wins higher and cement that 4 spot. That's a big if.

But honestly, nobody can argue the ceiling for our team is higher than that of the top three seeds in the conference. It's not even close. Our young players simply haven't shown the type of potential to explode into superstardom that defines a team on the rise.

We are a team on the minor slant upwards. And it's almost done slanting.

If DD or Bargnani become all-stars, I will eat my words.

Otherwise, expect another one and done, and another one, and another one for the forseeable future. Unless Chris Bosh leaves because he realizes the same thing. In which case, after this year we'll be back to square one. Personally, I'd almost prefer a mini-rebuild to raise the potential ceiling. But hey, that's just me.